How far do commodity prices fall, and do they recover?
Derived report snapshot · 2026-10-04 · Original report
The typical benchmark price has at some point fallen 85% from a peak in inflation-adjusted terms. 38 of the 43 have not yet climbed back to the peak that preceded their worst fall; the slowest to recover took 29 years (oranges). The worst was sugar, down 98% between November 1974 and June 1985.
A drawdown is the fall from a running peak to a later low, measured on the real price (deflated by US consumer prices to 2024 dollars) so that inflation does not disguise a fall. "Recovered" means the real price got back to the peak that preceded the trough. 9 of the ten deepest falls began before 1985, so a price that has not recovered may partly reflect a series that starts at a boom. Click a heading to sort.
| Price | Worst fall | From | To | Months to recover | Now below record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sugar | −98% | November 1974 | June 1985 | not yet | 95% |
| Silver | −95% | January 1980 | November 2001 | not yet | 61% |
| Coffee | −94% | April 1977 | August 2002 | not yet | 80% |
| Coconut oil | −94% | March 1974 | February 2001 | not yet | 79% |
| Urea | −94% | January 1974 | July 1999 | not yet | 81% |
| Cocoa | −93% | July 1977 | November 2000 | not yet | 75% |
| Natural gas | −93% | October 2005 | March 2024 | not yet | 88% |
| Rice | −93% | April 1974 | May 2001 | not yet | 89% |
| Palm oil | −92% | October 1974 | May 2001 | not yet | 80% |
| Phosphate rock | −92% | February 1977 | January 1999 | not yet | 79% |
| Tin | −91% | October 1978 | September 2001 | not yet | 27% |
| Phosphate fertilizers | −91% | September 1974 | June 2001 | not yet | 70% |
| Soybeans | −90% | June 1973 | May 2001 | not yet | 86% |
| Crude oil | −89% | November 1979 | December 1998 | 113 | 56% |
| Cotton | −89% | January 1974 | October 2001 | not yet | 85% |
| Zinc | −89% | May 1974 | April 2003 | not yet | 68% |
| Lead | −88% | June 1979 | October 2002 | not yet | 71% |
| Peanuts | −88% | November 1980 | May 2002 | not yet | 87% |
| Copper | −88% | April 1974 | October 2001 | not yet | 32% |
| Wheat | −87% | February 1974 | December 2016 | not yet | 79% |
| Nickel | −86% | May 2007 | February 2016 | not yet | 80% |
| Corn | −85% | October 1974 | July 2000 | not yet | 77% |
| Tea | −84% | April 1977 | March 2003 | not yet | 82% |
| Natural rubber | −83% | February 2011 | August 2023 | not yet | 73% |
| Gold | −83% | January 1980 | April 2001 | 286 | 14% |
| Beef | −82% | August 1973 | October 1998 | not yet | 60% |
| Iron ore | −82% | November 2007 | December 2015 | not yet | 69% |
| Platinum | −81% | February 1980 | October 1998 | not yet | 52% |
| Aluminum | −81% | June 1988 | April 2020 | not yet | 68% |
| Plywood | −81% | May 1993 | July 2026 | not yet | 80% |
| Coal | −81% | April 1981 | August 2002 | 70 | 72% |
| Palm kernel oil | −80% | February 2011 | June 2019 | not yet | 35% |
| Potash | −79% | April 2022 | October 2024 | not yet | 72% |
| Oranges | −78% | July 1979 | December 1994 | 353 | 73% |
| Bananas | −77% | May 1964 | August 2003 | not yet | 51% |
| Tobacco | −77% | January 1960 | September 2005 | not yet | 66% |
| Sunflower oil | −71% | June 2008 | January 2019 | not yet | 53% |
| Fishmeal | −67% | November 1980 | November 2000 | 80 | 10% |
| Chicken | −66% | July 1973 | July 2024 | not yet | 59% |
| Lamb | −65% | May 2011 | June 2024 | not yet | 51% |
| Sawnwood | −64% | February 2008 | October 2022 | not yet | 62% |
| Logs | −64% | October 1978 | January 2025 | not yet | 62% |
| Canola | −61% | April 2022 | February 2024 | not yet | 44% |
Volatility by decade
Volatility here is the annualised standard deviation of monthly percentage changes in the cash price. The median across benchmark prices was highest in the 1970s and lowest in the 1960s; the 2020s are partial.
| Decade | Median volatility | Prices |
|---|---|---|
| 1960s | 12% | 31 |
| 1970s | 26% | 35 |
| 1980s | 21% | 38 |
| 1990s | 18% | 39 |
| 2000s | 23% | 43 |
| 2010s | 19% | 43 |
| 2020s | 22% | 43 |
| Price | 2010s | 2020s |
|---|---|---|
| Cocoa | 17% | 37% |
| Natural gas | 40% | 77% |
| Sunflower oil | 15% | 28% |
| Coal | 22% | 41% |
| Platinum | 16% | 26% |
| Canola | 13% | 22% |
World Bank Pink Sheet primary series with at least 20 years of data and a current observation; US consumer price index from FRED (BLS). Volatility needs at least 60 monthly changes in a decade. Prices are monthly averages and are not investment advice.
Source snapshot and downloads
Recreated from Commodity Origins' published derived reports under CC BY 4.0. Report figures retain the publisher's definitions, coverage and reporting years. Selection of underlying commodity rows in our commodity explorer is separate and may have different coverage. Source notes above identify the upstream data; no publisher endorsement is implied.
Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-05. New source vintages require review and republication.