Which prices move together, and which have a season?

The most closely linked pair of benchmark prices is platinum and silver: their month-to-month percentage changes correlate at 0.80 over the 120 months to August 2026. Of the 903 possible pairs among 43 series, 23 correlate at 0.5 or higher and 121 at 0.3 or higher, so most commodity prices move largely independently of one another.

Prices that move together

The table shows the correlation of month-to-month percentage changes in each pair of benchmark prices over the 120 months from September 2016 to August 2026. A value of 1 means the two rise and fall in step, 0 means no relationship, and −1 means they move in opposite directions. Using changes rather than price levels avoids the trap that two prices which both trend upward always look related. Correlation is not causation: linked prices often share a cause such as energy costs, the dollar or a common buyer.

Green: prices that rise and fall together. Brown: prices that move in opposite directions. Thicker and darker lines are stronger correlations.

The most negative pair is phosphate rock and plywood at -0.26, which is weak: no two of the 43 prices are strongly opposed.

What one commodity buys of another

Prices with a season

For each benchmark price, each month is compared with the average of the twelve months around it, and the results are averaged by calendar month over 2000 to the last full year. The table lists prices where the gap between the highest and lowest calendar month is at least 6% and the highest month beat the lowest in at least three years out of four. The highest and lowest months are chosen after the fact from all twelve, so this describes the past and is not a forecast or a trading signal.

World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), primary series for each commodity; only series updated in the latest month are used. Ratios use monthly average prices for both commodities.