COMMODITY ORIGINS · WHICH PRICES FOLLOW OIL?

Which commodity prices follow oil?

Name: Which commodity prices follow oil?
Creator: Commodity Origins
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Derived report snapshot · 2026-10-04 · Original report

The median commodity price has had a correlation with crude oil of 0.05 in 1996 to 2005, 0.36 in 2006 to 2015 and 0.20 in the last ten years. 3 prices are now at 0.40 or higher: aluminum, cotton, palm oil.

The correlation is calculated on month-to-month percentage changes in each price and in the Brent crude oil benchmark, over three periods, and needs at least 90 overlapping months. A value near 0 means the price moves independently of oil; near 1, in step with it. Energy is a cost for farming, fertiliser, mining and shipping, and vegetable oils and sugar can be turned into fuel, which are the usual reasons prices are linked. A shift between periods shows the link strengthening or weakening but does not by itself explain why. Click a heading to sort.

Correlation of monthly price changes with crude oil, by period
Price	1996 to 2005	2006 to 2015	last 10 years	Change, latest vs 2006 to 2015
Aluminum	0.28	0.56	0.45	−0.10
Cotton	0.06	0.38	0.44	+0.06
Palm oil	-0.14	0.49	0.40	−0.09
Sugar	0.08	0.19	0.37	+0.19
Canola	—	0.58	0.37	−0.21
Platinum	0.17	0.50	0.35	−0.15
Natural rubber	—	0.53	0.32	−0.21
Copper	0.21	0.65	0.30	−0.35
Sunflower oil	—	0.46	0.29	−0.17
Palm kernel oil	0.07	0.40	0.28	−0.12
Nickel	0.24	0.47	0.26	−0.21
Urea	0.16	0.28	0.25	−0.03
Chicken	0.00	0.07	0.24	+0.18
Coal	0.14	0.49	0.24	−0.25
Beef	0.10	0.37	0.23	−0.14
Potash	0.01	0.10	0.23	+0.13
Silver	-0.05	0.41	0.23	−0.19
Tin	0.12	0.51	0.23	−0.29
Zinc	0.12	0.44	0.21	−0.23
Coconut oil	-0.03	0.40	0.21	−0.19
Iron ore	0.08	0.42	0.20	−0.21
Corn	-0.12	0.32	0.19	−0.12
Phosphate fertilizers	-0.03	0.18	0.19	+0.01
Lead	0.02	0.40	0.19	−0.21
Soybeans	-0.06	0.46	0.18	−0.28
Sawnwood	0.06	0.47	0.15	−0.32
Tobacco	0.00	0.05	0.13	+0.08
Wheat	0.05	0.23	0.09	−0.14
Oranges	0.16	0.07	0.06	−0.01
Tea	0.12	0.33	0.06	−0.27
Natural gas	0.15	0.16	0.05	−0.11
Peanuts	0.05	0.10	0.03	−0.07
Fishmeal	-0.04	0.05	0.03	−0.02
Phosphate rock	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	+0.10
Cocoa	-0.04	0.36	0.02	−0.34
Lamb	0.02	0.23	0.02	−0.22
Logs	0.02	0.31	-0.00	−0.31
Gold	0.07	0.26	-0.04	−0.30
Bananas	0.04	-0.00	-0.05	−0.05
Coffee	-0.08	0.25	-0.08	−0.34
Plywood	0.09	0.10	-0.20	−0.30
Rice	-0.03	0.17	-0.25	−0.42

World Bank Pink Sheet primary series for each commodity against the Brent benchmark, monthly log changes; the last period is the 120 months from 2016-09 to 2026-08. Correlation is not causation, and a shared driver such as the dollar or global demand can link two prices without either affecting the other.

Source snapshot and downloads

Recreated from Commodity Origins' published derived reports under CC BY 4.0. Report figures retain the publisher's definitions, coverage and reporting years. Selection of underlying commodity rows in our commodity explorer is separate and may have different coverage. Source notes above identify the upstream data; no publisher endorsement is implied.

patterns.json analysis.json analysis-prices.json consumption.json trade-flows.json import-markets.json Checksums and provenance

Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-05. New source vintages require review and republication.

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