COMMODITY ORIGINS · SEASONALITY

Which commodity prices have a calendar-month pattern?

Name: Which commodity prices have a calendar-month pattern?
Creator: Commodity Origins
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Derived report snapshot · 2026-10-04 · Original report

8 of 43 benchmark prices show a consistent calendar-month pattern (bananas, tea, palm kernel oil, iron ore, tin and others): a gap of at least 6% between their usual highest and lowest months, with the high beating the low in at least three years out of four. When the twelve months of each year are shuffled at random, which removes any calendar link, about 2 prices clear the same bar (at most 7 in 200 runs), so the 8 are well beyond chance.

The short list on linked prices and seasons shows only the prices that clear the bar. This page shows the other 35 as well, so the absence of a pattern is visible, and the whole twelve-month profile of every price. Method: each month's log price minus the average of the twelve months around it, averaged by calendar month over 2000 to 2025; a price needs at least 15 years in every calendar month. Each cell is how far above (blue) or below (orange) its surrounding-year average that calendar month usually sits. The highest and lowest months are chosen after the fact from all twelve, so this describes the past and is not a forecast or a trading signal. Click a heading to sort.

Average deviation from the surrounding-year price by calendar month, per cent
Price	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Gap	Years high beat low	Clears the bar
Oranges	−7.9	−6.9	−2.3	+0.3	+3.0	+5.3	+7.2	+6.0	+4.6	+3.4	−3.3	−8.5	17%	16 of 26	No
Bananas	+0.9	+8.5	+8.6	+4.8	+3.7	+0.3	−3.3	−4.7	−3.2	−4.3	−4.9	−2.7	15%	26 of 26	Yes
Tea	−2.0	−4.9	−8.6	−0.5	+1.1	+1.9	+4.8	+4.1	+3.2	+2.3	+0.4	−0.8	14%	25 of 26	Yes
Natural gas	+5.0	+0.5	−5.4	−4.5	−0.7	+1.4	−1.4	−1.7	−2.4	+0.8	+1.4	+7.3	14%	15 of 26	No
Palm kernel oil	+4.8	+4.8	+4.7	+4.8	+2.3	−1.4	−4.4	−4.8	−4.8	−5.9	−0.6	+1.6	11%	20 of 26	Yes
Iron ore	+4.0	+4.9	+3.4	+2.8	+1.6	+0.4	+1.0	+0.9	−2.8	−5.0	−5.8	−2.7	11%	23 of 26	Yes
Crude oil	−4.0	−1.3	−0.3	−0.6	+1.9	+3.5	+4.1	+3.6	+2.7	+1.2	−3.1	−6.4	11%	19 of 26	No
Urea	+1.2	−0.3	−0.2	−3.6	−5.6	−2.8	+0.2	+3.2	+3.5	+4.2	+3.7	−0.1	10%	18 of 26	No
Coconut oil	+2.7	+1.7	+1.7	+3.7	+2.9	+1.8	−1.0	−2.2	−4.6	−5.2	−0.5	+1.0	9%	19 of 26	No
Palm oil	+1.4	+2.5	+3.7	+4.1	+2.2	−0.4	−1.7	−1.2	−3.5	−4.4	−1.3	−0.1	9%	19 of 26	No
Nickel	+0.1	+2.2	+3.1	+3.9	+3.4	+0.5	−0.4	+0.1	−0.6	−2.4	−4.3	−4.0	9%	19 of 26	No
Tin	−0.0	+2.5	+3.1	+4.5	+3.8	+1.3	+0.1	−1.8	−2.4	−2.7	−3.5	−2.5	8%	20 of 26	Yes
Chicken	−1.7	−2.4	+0.3	+1.2	+4.4	+4.8	+2.7	+0.4	−1.1	−2.8	−2.8	−2.6	8%	20 of 26	Yes
Corn	+1.4	+2.6	+2.9	+2.6	+3.1	+2.5	−0.6	−4.1	−3.8	−2.0	−1.6	−1.1	7%	22 of 26	Yes
Sugar	+2.3	+3.3	−0.8	−2.9	−3.5	−2.8	+0.5	+0.2	−0.2	+2.3	+1.4	+1.3	7%	17 of 26	No
Phosphate fertilizers	−2.0	+0.3	+3.3	+1.9	−1.5	−0.9	+0.3	+2.6	+2.6	+1.4	−1.6	−3.3	7%	18 of 26	No
Platinum	+0.5	+3.2	+2.1	+2.5	+2.5	+1.8	+0.4	−0.6	−1.3	−3.3	−3.0	−2.8	7%	20 of 26	Yes
Natural rubber	+3.0	+4.3	+2.9	+0.5	−0.4	−1.1	−2.0	−1.5	−0.5	−0.5	−2.0	−1.3	6%	18 of 26	No
Lead	+1.7	+2.7	+1.4	−0.1	−2.6	−3.6	−1.0	+0.0	+0.8	+1.6	+1.3	+0.0	6%	18 of 26	No
Cotton	+1.4	+3.2	+3.5	+2.9	+1.0	+0.2	−1.2	−2.2	−2.0	−2.6	−2.0	−0.8	6%	17 of 26	No
Rice	+1.4	+1.4	+1.1	+2.0	+2.4	+2.1	−0.2	−0.7	−1.6	−3.5	−3.1	−0.7	6%	19 of 26	No
Cocoa	+0.6	+1.7	+2.4	+2.3	+1.2	+1.0	+0.8	+0.3	−0.1	−2.6	−2.4	+0.1	5%	17 of 26	No
Copper	−1.0	+0.3	+1.7	+2.8	+2.3	+0.8	+0.9	+0.1	−0.1	−1.1	−2.1	−1.7	5%	17 of 26	No
Sunflower oil	−0.0	+0.9	+1.7	+1.8	+2.7	+1.0	−0.6	−1.3	−2.2	−1.3	−0.2	−1.1	5%	14 of 23	No
Coffee	+0.8	+3.0	+2.5	+2.4	+1.5	−0.6	−1.8	−1.4	−0.6	−1.3	−0.6	−0.7	5%	16 of 26	No
Peanuts	+2.7	+0.9	−0.2	−1.3	−1.7	−0.7	−0.0	−0.2	−0.4	−1.4	+0.5	+2.5	4%	20 of 26	No
Silver	+0.3	+2.0	+2.0	+2.8	+0.8	−0.4	−0.7	−0.5	−0.4	−1.5	−1.5	−1.1	4%	17 of 26	No
Zinc	+1.8	+1.3	+1.7	+2.4	+0.9	−1.6	−1.8	−1.5	−1.5	−0.4	−0.5	+0.6	4%	17 of 26	No
Potash	−1.8	−0.7	−1.5	+1.4	+2.3	+2.1	+0.8	+1.5	+0.4	−0.5	−0.6	−1.3	4%	11 of 26	No
Coal	+1.1	+0.7	+0.1	−1.2	−0.8	−0.2	+1.9	+1.6	+1.0	+0.3	−2.2	−0.1	4%	15 of 26	No
Soybeans	+1.2	+1.0	+1.4	+0.7	+0.5	+0.9	+1.2	−0.8	−1.3	−2.5	−0.6	−0.1	4%	14 of 26	No
Phosphate rock	−1.0	−0.9	−1.1	+0.4	+1.8	+1.1	−1.7	+0.1	+0.3	+2.2	+1.9	−0.7	4%	10 of 26	No
Fishmeal	+1.9	+1.2	+0.3	+0.7	+1.0	+1.7	+0.9	−0.2	−0.7	−1.5	−1.8	−0.7	4%	17 of 26	No
Canola	+0.9	−0.6	−1.0	−0.7	+1.0	+1.3	−0.4	−0.8	−1.2	+0.8	+2.4	+1.5	4%	18 of 24	No
Beef	−1.2	−1.0	+0.4	+1.3	+1.5	+0.4	+1.0	+1.5	+0.9	−1.6	+0.2	−1.2	3%	19 of 26	No
Wheat	+0.8	+1.2	+0.6	+0.2	+0.8	−1.3	−1.8	−1.9	+0.4	+1.1	+0.6	+0.3	3%	17 of 26	No
Aluminum	+1.1	+1.9	+1.6	+1.8	+0.4	−1.1	−0.7	−0.8	−1.1	−0.7	−0.9	−0.7	3%	19 of 26	No
Lamb	−0.7	−0.9	−0.5	+1.7	+1.7	+0.9	−0.4	−0.2	−0.2	−0.0	−0.3	+0.4	3%	14 of 26	No
Gold	+0.7	+1.8	+1.2	+1.3	+1.1	+0.2	−0.5	−0.3	+0.1	−0.2	−0.5	−0.7	2%	19 of 26	No
Logs	+1.5	+0.6	−0.2	−0.4	−0.3	−0.4	−0.0	+0.4	−0.0	−0.1	−0.4	+0.3	2%	18 of 26	No
Sawnwood	+0.6	+0.7	−0.2	−0.2	+0.4	+0.9	+0.5	+0.3	−0.1	−0.7	−1.0	−0.5	2%	16 of 26	No
Plywood	−0.4	−0.4	−0.3	−0.4	−0.4	−0.0	−0.0	+0.9	+0.9	+0.1	−0.3	−0.2	1%	17 of 26	No
Tobacco	+0.0	+0.1	+0.2	+0.1	+0.0	+0.2	+0.3	+0.3	−0.0	+0.3	+0.3	−0.0	0%	14 of 26	No

A pattern that clears the bar is still a pattern in 2000 to 2025, not a rule: crop prices often have a harvest-time low and a pre-harvest high, but a metal or a meat price with a calendar pattern has no such obvious mechanism, and with 43 prices tested a few can look seasonal by luck even beyond the 2 the shuffle produces. For harvest months themselves, see the harvest calendar.

World Bank Pink Sheet primary benchmark series, monthly averages, 2000 to the last full year. Bar: gap between the highest and lowest calendar month of at least 6% and the highest beating the lowest in at least 75% of years. Chance benchmark: 200 runs in which the monthly deviations within each year are shuffled (this also removes month-to-month smoothness, which makes the benchmark slightly generous to chance); seeded, so the page is the same on every build.

Source snapshot and downloads

Recreated from Commodity Origins' published derived reports under CC BY 4.0. Report figures retain the publisher's definitions, coverage and reporting years. Selection of underlying commodity rows in our commodity explorer is separate and may have different coverage. Source notes above identify the upstream data; no publisher endorsement is implied.

patterns.json analysis.json analysis-prices.json consumption.json trade-flows.json import-markets.json Checksums and provenance

Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-05. New source vintages require review and republication.

More patterns

ConcentrationHow much of each commodity comes from one country?Producer or exporter?Is the biggest producer also the biggest seller abroad?Prices in real termsWhich prices are records once inflation is removed?Growth and declineWhose output is rising or falling fastest?Linked prices and seasonsWhich prices move together, and which have a season?Reserves and miningWhere are the deposits, and who digs them up?Supply concentrationWhich commodities depend on the fewest suppliers?Land or yield?Did output grow because farmers planted more or farmed better?Supply shocks and pricesWhen world output falls, do prices rise?Category price indicesHow have energy, metals and food prices moved since 1960?Drawdowns and volatilityHow far do prices fall, and do they recover?Stocks and pricesAre prices lower when the world holds more stock?Which prices follow oil?How closely does each commodity track crude oil?How reliable is the data?How much of world output rests on estimates?Net exporters and importersWho is a net seller and who a net buyer?Country leadersWhich countries lead across the most commodities?Export dependencyWhich countries rely on one commodity?Concentration over timeHas production spread out or narrowed?Import dependencyWhich countries buy most of a commodity from one supplier?Supplier shiftsWho gained and lost importers' business?Trade price against benchmarkDoes traded product sell above or below the benchmark price?Prices in other currenciesHow much of a price move is the dollar?Do prices lead each other?Does one commodity price move before another?Volatility over timeAre prices more volatile now than they used to be?Price ratiosWhat does one commodity buy of another, and is that high or low?El Niño and pricesDo El Niño and La Niña years move commodity prices?Who consumes itWhich countries consume each commodity, and how much per person?Self-sufficiencyWhich large markets depend on imports, and which produce far more than they use?Trade flowsWho sells each commodity to whom?