When world output falls, do prices rise?
Derived report snapshot · 2026-10-04 · Original report
Not across crops as a group. In the 719 crop-years since 1993 in which a priced crop's world output changed, the real price rose in 51% of the 109 years when output fell by 3% or more, in 45% of the 303 years when it barely moved and in 51% of the 307 years when it rose. The rank correlation between the change in output and the change in price across all cases is 0.00.
That is a surprising result and deserves caution rather than a conclusion; a few individual crops do show a link, in both directions (see the crop-by-crop table). Annual world output is a blunt measure: a shortage in one region can be offset by stocks or by another region, a price can anticipate the shortfall before the harvest, and one year's average price blends the months before and after. Prices are also driven by demand, energy costs, currencies and policy, none of which are held constant here. What the table does show is that a fall in world output is not, on its own, a reliable signal of a higher price in the same year.
| Years when | Cases | Median price change, same year | Price rose | Median price change, next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World output fell 3% or more | 109 | +0.4% | 51% | +3.9% |
| Output within ±3% | 303 | −1.7% | 45% | +0.3% |
| Output rose 3% or more | 307 | +0.6% | 51% | −2.9% |
Next-year price changes lean the other way: a median of +3.9% after an output fall and −2.9% after a rise. That is consistent with prices partly reverting, but it is a median over many different crops and is not a forecast.
The largest output falls
| Crop | Year | World output | Real price, same year | Next year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobacco | 1998 | −23% | −7% | −11% |
| Coconut oil | 1999 | −23% | +10% | −41% |
| Tobacco | 1994 | −23% | −4% | −3% |
| Barley | 2010 | −18% | +21% | +27% |
| Coconut oil | 2011 | −17% | +49% | −37% |
| Sorghum | 1993 | −17% | −6% | +2% |
| Coconut oil | 1996 | −16% | +9% | −15% |
| Sorghum | 2009 | −15% | −27% | +8% |
| Coconut oil | 2002 | −14% | +30% | +9% |
| Coconut oil | 2020 | −14% | +36% | +55% |
| Cotton | 2015 | −14% | −15% | +4% |
| Peanuts | 2006 | −13% | −3% | +39% |
| Sorghum | 1997 | −13% | −29% | −12% |
| Barley | 1995 | −13% | +39% | +12% |
Crop by crop
Rank correlation between output change and price change, for crops with at least 20 years: from -0.66 (sunflower oil) to 0.42 (rice). With 20 to 30 years each, values between about −0.35 and 0.35 are indistinguishable from noise, so read only the extremes.
| Crop | Rank correlation | Years |
|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | -0.66 | 20 |
| Lamb | -0.37 | 32 |
| Palm kernel oil | -0.28 | 27 |
| Coffee | -0.26 | 32 |
| Coconut oil | -0.24 | 31 |
| Soybeans | -0.22 | 32 |
| Cocoa | -0.20 | 32 |
| Palm oil | -0.18 | 31 |
| Sugar | -0.16 | 31 |
| Barley | -0.08 | 27 |
| Oranges | -0.08 | 32 |
| Tea | -0.01 | 32 |
| Bananas | 0.08 | 32 |
| Canola | 0.10 | 21 |
| Beef | 0.13 | 32 |
| Corn | 0.13 | 32 |
| Wheat | 0.18 | 32 |
| Sorghum | 0.24 | 27 |
| Chicken | 0.27 | 32 |
| Peanuts | 0.27 | 32 |
| Tobacco | 0.30 | 32 |
| Natural rubber | 0.37 | 25 |
| Cotton | 0.42 | 31 |
| Rice | 0.42 | 32 |
World output: FAOSTAT, sum of reporting countries, from 1992 (earlier, the country coverage of the sum changes with the breakup of the USSR and Yugoslavia). Price: World Bank Pink Sheet primary benchmark, calendar-year average, deflated by the US consumer price index to 2024 dollars; only complete years. Crops whose production series is a proxy (orange juice, cardamom) are excluded. This measures association, not cause.
Source snapshot and downloads
Recreated from Commodity Origins' published derived reports under CC BY 4.0. Report figures retain the publisher's definitions, coverage and reporting years. Selection of underlying commodity rows in our commodity explorer is separate and may have different coverage. Source notes above identify the upstream data; no publisher endorsement is implied.
Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-05. New source vintages require review and republication.